Big Sort

More than ever, people who make a living creating value with new products and ideas are converging in a few states. This “Big Sort”—as journalist Bill Bishop terms it—is creating a brain gain pattern in which some states are big winners. Although their success isn’t necessarily at the expense of other states, the new patterns are making some states “older” and some states “younger,” in terms of talent. Understanding how the Big Sort affects a state is a critical step in planning for the future.

The Big Sort is fundamentally about migration—about the choices people make about where to live and how these choices change the makeup of states and communities. Americans have always been a mobile society, but mobility patterns are not random. Certain groups in our population are more likely to move and, when they move, they tend to concentrate in certain places. Hence the Big Sort. The groups to watch are Educated Movers, Baby Boomers, the Young and the Restless and also Immigrants, which will be a focus of future additions to The Big Sort. 

Educated Movers

The more education you have, the more money you earn—and the more likely you are to contribute to the economic success of the state where you live. At the same time, the more education you have, the more likely you are to move to another state to pursue opportunities. And, increasingly, these educated movers are congregating in just a few states. As a result, the rich states are getting richer. In an upward spiral, areas with dense concentrations of highly educated workers are more likely to grow their knowledge-based industries, and in turn, attract even more highly educated residents.

Baby Boomers

The Baby Boomers have begun to retire—and to move. This migration will have a big effect on states.

Migration tends to be strongly correlated with age. Young adults are the most likely to move across state lines. Then, as people settle down, they tend to become rooted in place. But, starting in their late 50s, people are more likely to move again, although many retirees will “age in place."

The migration flows of senior citizens tend to be one-directional. Although older people bring some higher costs (for example, health care) to the states to which they move, they also bring significant assets. These assets are both financial (accumulated savings, home equity and retirement benefits) and social (many are active volunteers and bring great knowledge with them). As boomers move to the South and West to retire, they will strengthen the places to which they move, and the places they leave will be weaker for the loss.

The Young and the Restless

The mobile 25- to 39-year-olds are a population that states want to attract, because they generate income and are harbingers of economic success. In recent years, this group has become more concentrated in some states and metro areas. Between 1995 and 2000, only 17 states experienced a net increase in the number of single, college educated adults age 25 to 39, while the remaining 33 states experienced a net loss.

How is your state affected by the Big Sort?