Demand for Democracy

Elections are the backbone of democracy. But even with the recent upsurge in voter activism, many voters fail to turn out for House, Senate and state elections, meaning that those who do vote make the decisions for everyone else.

The long-term trend shows that 55 percent to 60 percent of eligible voters cast their ballots in a presidential election. In 2008, this could rise much higher. However, only about 40 percent of eligible 40-pct-dem_300-7/25 voters vote in mid-term elections, when many governors and other state officers, as well as the U.S. House and one-third of the U.S. Senate are elected.

Participation data reveal clear patterns about who is most likely to vote and who isn’t. If you are old, white, educated and strongly rooted in your community, you are more likely to vote. If you are young, non-white, less educated and move frequently, you are less likely to vote.

While these patterns generally hold true across states, there is great variation in voter turnout among the 50 states. For example, in the 2006 mid-term election, 55 percent of eligible Minnesotans went to the polls, while only 29 percent of North Carolinians voted.

Eligible citizens can’t vote if they are not registered, yet state registration systems vary dramatically in the deadlines established, the hurdles that must be navigated and, ultimately, their effectiveness in maintaining complete and accurate voter registration rolls. Self-reported registration rates vary dramatically, from a high of over 79 percent in Maine, to a low of 53 percent in Hawaii.

Research shows that competitive elections increase voter turnout, but the amount of money required to run for office and the competitiveness of the districts drawn by state legislatures can deter or doom candidates. For example, in 2004, the average candidate needed around $110,000 to run for a seat in the upper chamber of a state legislature, and the average candidate needed more than $300,000 in California, Illinois and Texas.

The 2008 Presidential election has managed to energize voters, leading to significant increases in voter registration and expected high levels of voter turnout. This is also an election year where unprecedented numbers of voters are taking advantage of newly available vote-by-mail and early voting options. While 2008 may set new records, voting trends suggest turnout will return to the low 40s in 2010. As states increasingly take the lead on policy reform with respect to climate change, immigration and other issues, who votes and who doesn’t—and why—matters more and more.

Who is making decisions for your state?

Assessments

Voter turnout is a key measure of the health of state election systems. Another factor determining the health of election systems is competitiveness of elections. A major factor contributing to uncompetitive campaigns is the amount of money needed to win an election.

Expert Columns

Is there a way to “sort” out voter turnout in November?
Aug 18, 2008
By Jon Talton, Economics Columnist for Seattle Times